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InhaltsangabeContents About the Authors Preface Acknowledgements Defi nitions of Risk and Risk Management Introduction 1 The Universal Learning Curve 2 The Four Echoes 3 Predicting Rocket Risks and Refi nery Explosions: Near Misses, Shuttles, Safety and Anti-Missile Defence Systems Effectiveness 4 The Probability of Human Error: Learning in Technological Systems 5 Eliminating Mistakes: The Concept of Error States 6 Risk Assessment: Dynamic Events and Financial Risks 7 Safety and Risk Management Systems: the Fifth Echoes 8 Risk Perception: Searching for the Truth Among all the Numbers 9 I Must Be Learning Appendices: Appendix A: The 'Human Bathtub': Predicting the Future Risk Appendix B: The Most Risk, or Maximum Likelihood, for the Outcome (Failure or Error) Rate while Learning Appendix C: Transcripts of the Four Echoes Appendix D: The Four Phases: Fuel Leak Leading to Gliding a Jet in to Land without any Engine Power Appendix E: The Four Phases of a Midair Collision Appendix F: Risk From the Number of Outcomes We Observe: How Many Are There? Appendix G: Mixing in a Tank: The D.D. Williamson Vessel Explosion Appendix H: Never Happening Again Appendix I: A Heuristic Organisational Risk Stability Criterion Appendix J: New Laws of Practice for Learning and Error Correction Appendix K: Predicting Rocket Launch Reliability - Case Study Index